How to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a more impressive advantage over you once you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, however they are not. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.

A parlay is not an individual bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on the other. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you would still make the bet?

A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the second team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't have to be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to remove the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.

Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.

55g  knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of these won, the player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.

At first glance, this were a great chance for the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half the time, and losing $200 half enough time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of among the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the overall game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% and only the "over." The player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to enable you to parlay first half to game. If they do permit you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will be taken to the cleaners.

You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that can still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in the same game.

Any game where the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and increase your win with very little increase in risk. This type of bet, however, needed that you have an opinion on the side or the full total. Parlaying is another method to boost your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win in case you have no opinion.

You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They are Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia covers 25 points, the more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Due to this fact, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.

For those who have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favourite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to help make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the full total in exactly the same game, because a growing number of are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.