How to Bet Parlays in Sports

The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.

Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a more impressive advantage over you when you play them. That, by itself, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often result in betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, however they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, but they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the higher possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.

A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?

A parlay is also bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, depending upon whether the first game won or lost. That adds some luck to your betting that doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to remove the effect of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.

As with every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs once the two bets are co-dependent.

I knew one bookmaker who was simply taken for tens of thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the initial half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the game, and the under in the first half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Each and every time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.

Initially, this appeared to be a great chance for the book. The standard coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out from the two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor should be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after six months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.

The issue for the bookmaker was that the two halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.

Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The overall game total was 53 and the initial half total was 27. By the end of the first half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of one of many parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the chances of winning the "over" in the overall game weren't 50-50 but better than 99% and only the "over." The player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.

Before you rush out to use this, remember that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should they do allow you to do this, start worrying about collecting because that book will soon be taken to the cleaners.

You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.

Any game in which the total is less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with very little increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an impression on the side or the total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or even to create a potential win in case you have no opinion.

There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).

In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to only 11 points or the overall game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes through the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will go over 48 �.  trang chủ luck8  winning margin, the much more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will never be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are higher than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Subsequently, the probability that a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.

When you have no opinion on the game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a complete of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.

The closer the posted total is to the spread privately, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays isn't as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there exists a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.

Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the side to the full total in exactly the same game, because increasingly more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so you might consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.

If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet having an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.