Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that you will find the majority of these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. A great deal of table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps which might be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet has a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. The reason being most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are placed through the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For instance, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you were able to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will assist you in the end. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 or even 10. Learn more between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.