Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are Hi88 ' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Plenty of table games and slots offer a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. There are also steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long run.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the home minimum. The reason being most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had litigant who broke even after increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that may help you in the long run. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are going to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 or even 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.