Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, so as to they make reference to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some kind of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas check out the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is really a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a pair of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that can be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest amount of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. This is due to most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
mocbai assume that because they are keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most of all, it really is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with such a high house edge. For example, if you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will assist you in the long term. First of all, the very best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you need to understand why I'd never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between your house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.