Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' in the business of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the point that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, tdtc know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance is important in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. It is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay per week. In football this means at the least 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a low unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For example, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you in the end. First of all, the very best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check in order to be successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming a huge amount of unnecessary risk. Or you can minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.