Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of Hi88 Uno , so as to they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some form of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The house edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. A great deal of table games and slots provide a better value for the average bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing some dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. There are also steps that can be taken to decrease the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long run. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually happy to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the largest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the house minimum. It is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, should they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this implies a minimum of 34 parlays are put through the regular season. In baseball that number can easily exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet that is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. This is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued an identical warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help in the long run. First of all, the best value of most parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make this investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 and even 10. The difference between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is at 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, but the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to 1 1.
If you are going to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points lower than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.