Profitable Parlays - Fact Or Fiction?
There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of working with some type of royalty in the field of parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the fact that there is no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. A lot of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the back wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house provides. There are also steps which can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager could be reversed in the bettors favor by utilizing statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can't ever be overcome in the long term.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more consistent with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games that are frequently played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands and even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is clearly pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets that a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. This is due to most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real cash by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a significant loss by the end of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they might limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they're not taking on a significant risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it really is my experience that a lot of bettors do not place just one parlay per week. In Hi88 Uno at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with this type of high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation ought to be to lose about $35 for every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will assist you in the end. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you're going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always ensure it is 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually exactly like a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is approximately 10 points less than all three of those bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while attempting to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with a few units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.